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China’s September exports likely slowed on sluggish global demand:


China’s export growth is expected to have slowed even more in September due to a drop in overseas demand, according to a Reuters poll released on Thursday. This will put more pressure on the country’s already shaky economy, which is dealing with restrictions on COVID and a property crisis (Oct 13).

According to the median estimate of 30 economists who took part in the poll, exports likely went up 4.1% from a year ago after going up 7.1% in August.

The global economy is getting more and more weighed down by rising inflation, higher interest rates, and the months-long war in Ukraine. China’s slowdown is also adding to the pressure.

Both official and private surveys of factory activity in China last month showed that new export sub-indices continued to fall. This year, exports were one of the few things that helped the economy.

“The PMIs add to the growing evidence of a turning point in foreign demand,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, an economist at Capital Economics. He said this could be the start of a double-digit drop in Chinese exports.

China’s September exports likely slowed

Data from the China Ports & Harbours Association showed that foreign trade-related container throughput in China’s eight major ports dropped 14.6% in the first 10 days of September because of typhoons. However, it went back up between September 11 and 30, when the typhoons had passed. 
Imports, on the other hand, are expected to stay low in September, with a likely 1% increase compared to a 0.3% increase in August.

In September, South Korea’s export growth slowed to its slowest rate in almost two years. This is a leading indicator of China’s imports. China got 6.5% less of what the trade-dependent country sent there.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs pointed out that September had fewer working days and less growth in oil prices from one year to the next.

The weakening of the yuan means that China’s trade surplus probably grew from US$79.39 billion in August to US$81.0 billion in September.

One of the last official economic numbers to be released before China’s Communist Party Congress starts on Oct. 16 is trade data, which will be released on Friday.

The International Monetary Fund cut China’s growth forecast for 2022 from 3.3% to 3.2% on Tuesday. This is because the world’s second-largest economy is still dealing with COVID-19 curbs and a weakening real estate market.


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